Sunday and Monday Box Office Updates for “Eclipse”, Includes International Numbers

UPDATE MONDAY, JULY 5:

Box office estimates are in for Sunday, July 4 and Monday, July 5. For Sunday, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse finished in first place, taking in $16.6M from 4,468 locations for a per theater average of $3,715, representing a drop of 30.5% from Saturday to Sunday. This brings its 5-day cumulative domestic total to $161M. On Monday, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse stayed in first place, taking in $13.545M from 4,468 locations for a per theater average of $3,032, representing a drop of 18.4% from Sunday to Monday. This brings its 6-day cumulative domestic total to $175.29M. Adding in partial overseas returns of $100.2M gives Eclipse a current worldwide total of $275.49M.

For the 3-day weekend of Friday, July 2 – Sunday, July 4, Eclipse finished in first place with an estimated $69M from 4,468 locations for a per theater average of $15,443. For the 4-day weekend of Friday, July 2 – Monday, July 5, Eclipse finished in first place with an estimated $82.545M from 4,468 locations for a per theater average of $18,475. In second place for the 4-day weekend was The Last Airbender with $53.15M from 3,169 locations for a per theater average of $16,772. This brings its 5-day cumulative domestic total to $70.5M.
The all-time record for the Independence Day weekend (Friday to Sunday) is held by Spider-Man 2 with $88,156,227, followed by Transformers with $70,502,384. Eclipse finishes third with $69M. As I mentioned earlier, the last film that opened on a Wednesday, June 30 on the eve of a 4th of July weekend was Spider-Man 2 in 2004. That film holds the record for the first 6 days in release with $180M. For many, that was the number to beat. New Moon’s first six days brought in $178.9M, placing it in 6th place overall. As it turned out, Eclipse finished in 8th place with $175,289,978.

These numbers are not “actuals,” meaning they are only official estimates based on early reports. For those who are new to the box office numbers game, it may seem odd to have these figures when Monday isn’t even over yet. But it is standard procedure to have weekend totals announced at this time. For a weekend with a Monday holiday, after the Sunday box office totals come in on Monday morning, studios always estimate Monday and come up with a weekend projection. Therefore, Monday and weekend figures can only be estimates at this point. The actual numbers won’t be known until Tuesday. But many years and literally thousands of projections have yielded formulas that allow the industry to predict fairly closely what Monday will be based on Sunday’s numbers and, therefore, what the weekend will look like. The actual numbers that come in after the weekend are usually not too far off from the estimates made on Monday. They usually adjust slightly up or down but are rarely far off.

Meanwhile, there’s been some confusion over why Eclipse’s first two days didn’t count towards the weekend. It makes sense on the face of it, but let’s look back at the last movie that opened on a Wednesday, June 30 on the eve of a 4th of July weekend, Spider-Man 2 in 2004. As you can see here, its first two days in release, Wednesday, June 30 and Thursday, July 1, aren’t counted in the weekend numbers. There are two listings: the 3-day weekend of Friday to Sunday and the 4-day weekend of Friday through the Monday holiday. But they don’t count the first two days it was in release. They aren’t counted as part of the weekend although, as you can see, they are included in the film’s cumulative total and they are counted towards record-keeping. If there is any movie that Summit (and the media and public) should be comparing Eclipse to it should be Spider-Man 2, not New Moon.

They do tabulate records for films that open on a Wednesday or Thursday of a Monday holiday weekend. There is a 5-day holiday weekend record from Thursday-Monday for films that opened on a Wednesday or Thursday and a 6-day holiday weekend record from Wednesday-Monday for films that opened on a Wednesday. There are also 3-day (Friday-Sunday) and 4-day (Friday-Monday) records for holiday weekends, of course, as well as non-holiday records for 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-day opening periods (and on and on…). But these are all records which would only allow Eclipse to be compared to other films which were in theaters at the time, not against films which hadn’t even come out yet. Now that the film is in competition with the rest of the movie marketplace, we’ll be able to begin to judge the success of the film’s early days.

Then why did Summit release the film on a Wednesday? To get the jump on the competition. Most new movies open on a Friday. If Eclipse had opened the same day as all the other new holiday weekend films it would obviously have been competing with all of them. By opening earlier, on Wednesday, it only had to go up against the “old” films that were already out. There was no competition against anything new (not that The Last Airbender has, or looks like it will, give it much competition).

So the idea was not to compete against or beat New Moon’s early numbers. That may be a goal of some people but the idea is to make money, and maybe set some records in the process. The fact is, there is no way that a “weekend” that begins on a Wednesday can be compared to a “normal” 3-day weekend (when New Moon opened). So any comparison between the two simply isn’t valid — not until at least another week has gone by. Even then it will be difficult to put one up against the other since their release patterns are so different.

Is Summit happy with the first days’ box office returns? I don’t know but I’m fairly sure they must be. Again, the goal was not to “beat New Moon.” That may be something the press or some others will latch on to but it’s simply not a fair comparison. As I said above, it would make more sense to look at Spider-Man 2. It was very easy to compare Twilight to New Moon since they opened at the same time one year apart. Not so much New Moon to Eclipse. Let’s wait a week…or a few…or a month or more…before starting to compare the two. Better yet, let’s just see how the film does over time in its own right, and maybe see if it sets more records. And, if you like it, tell your friends.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:00 NOON:

Box office estimates are in for Saturday, July 3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse finished in first place, taking in another $23.9M from 4,468 theaters for an average of $5,349. This represents a 16.1% drop from Friday to Saturday. Adding in the film’s opening day box office take of $68.5M, Thursday’s $24.2M, and Friday’s $28.5M brings its 4-day cumulative domestic total to $145.1M.

Industry analysts are now projecting the film will take in another $16.6M today and $20M on Monday. This would give it $69M for the 3-day weekend of Friday-Sunday and $89M for the 4-day weekend (including the Monday holiday) of Friday-Monday. That would total $181M for the 6-day period of Wednesday-Monday since it’s been in theaters. These numbers are lower than those estimated yesterday since the film’s drop from Friday to Saturday was greater than anticipated.

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